俄烏戰爭曠日不絕，俄羅斯疑是在溫水煮蛤蟆？
Is Russia cooking a toad in warm water as the war between
Russia and Ukraine continues?
鳳凰新聞社國際問題評論員 田長友
Tian Changyou, international affairs commentator,
Phoenix News Agency
鳳凰新聞社訊
Phoenix News Service
俄烏戰爭於2022年2月24日發起，至今已有一個多月的時間了。開始，俄羅斯採取了強烈的攻勢，把烏克蘭主要軍事目標摧毀之後，而不是乘勝追擊，把烏克蘭徹底打垮，卻採取了消極戰術和佯攻的模式。現在已經從很多地區，開逐步始撤離，但不全面撤軍。按理說，依據俄羅斯的軍事實力，在沒有北約主動派兵支援烏克蘭的情況下，把烏克蘭蕩平，是俄羅斯不難做到的事情，但俄羅斯為什麼不這樣做？俄羅斯的這一舉動，引起了國際社會的廣泛關注，也引發了種種猜測，這究竟是怎麼一回事？
要想弄清楚這個問題，只有俄烏戰爭的主宰者普京才能做出權威的最完美的解釋和回答。但是普京卻保持沉默，避而不答。普京不答的原因無外乎有三個：
一個是時機不到，不能透露秘密。
另一個是俄烏戰爭不僅僅關乎到俄烏之間的關係，它更關到乎美國、北約、歐盟的關係，甚至關乎到世界的動蕩。
第三個是，俄烏戰爭變數、變化莫測，輕易下結論，都是不合適的，一旦事與願違，出現失策現象，會丟失顏面。
不管普京解釋和回答與否，這個問題，都存在很深的玄機，要想解開這個玄機，只有我們認真地動腦去思考，去判別，才能看到真正緣由。
It has been more than a month since the Russia-Ukraine war started on April 24, 2022. At first, Russia took a strong offensive to destroy the main Ukrainian military targets, and instead of following up the victory and completely destroying Ukraine, it adopted a pattern of passive tactics and feints. There has been a gradual withdrawal from many areas, but not a complete withdrawal. In theory, Russia's military might would make it easy for it to oblate Ukraine without the help of NATO troops, but why not? Russia's move has caused widespread concern in the international community, but also triggered a variety of speculation, what is going on?
To clarify this question, only Putin, the master of the War between Russia and Ukraine, can give the most authoritative explanation and answer. But Mr Putin remained silent and avoided answering. There are three reasons why Mr Putin did not answer:
One is not the right time to reveal secrets.
Another is that the Russia-Ukraine war is not only about the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, but also about the relationship between the United States, NATO and the European Union, and even about the turmoil of the world.
The third is that the Russia-Ukraine war is variable, unpredictable, easy to draw conclusions, are not appropriate, once things backfire, missteps, will lose face.
Whether Putin explained and answered or not, this question, there is a deep mystery, to solve this mystery, only we seriously think, to distinguish, to see the real reason.
不管國際社會輿論如何評判，俄烏戰爭最受害的國家是烏克蘭，這是禿子頭上的虱子，明擺著的事，無需爭辯。第二首害人是誰，那肯定是歐盟了。歐盟雖然是北約的主宰國家團體，但是別忘了，美國才是北約30國軍事同盟的真正主人。在軍事上，美國和歐盟是同盟，可在經濟上，美國和歐盟是真正的利益範圍的爭奪者。美國和歐盟向來都是演繹著“桌上碰杯，桌下踢腳”的表面和，台下爭的鬼把戲。
烏克蘭總統澤連斯基是個很不稱職、不識時務的總統，他看不到這一切，看不到美國的醜惡嘴臉，看不到美國才是這個世界上最不講誠信，最不可靠的國家，透不過美國和歐盟既合作又爭鬥的複雜的層層迷霧，依然決然地、不遺餘力地同時投向美國、北約和歐盟的懷抱，才鑄成如此大錯，才使烏克蘭人民捲入了戰亂的厄運。
說到這裡，大家肯定有人不解：俄烏戰爭受害的國家肯定是烏克蘭，除了烏克蘭，跟世界沒有多大關係呀，怎麼還會有第一、第二受害者之分？既然烏克蘭是第一受害者，那麼第二受害者為什麼會是歐盟？
俄烏戰爭的第一受害者是烏克蘭，這是無可爭辯的事實。歐盟28國集團受害，這正是美國一手操縱的、希望的最終結果。眾所周知，美國在歷史上，雖然不能被稱之為“戰鬥民族”，但美國從來都是戰爭的製造過和挑起者。有人做過統計，美國這個國家，在世界歷史的長河中，沒有戰爭的時間，只有15年，其他時間，都在發動、挑唆戰爭。美國從來都是一個靠攪亂國際秩序，自己發動或挑動別國發動戰爭，從中牟利的國家。美國就是靠這樣的手段，才走上了世界霸主的地位。然後以派兵保護的名義，在國外駐軍。在外駐軍的目的：一是為擴充自己的軍事實力；二是監視控制駐軍地國家，防止他國對美國的軍事威脅。
No matter how the public opinion of the international community judges, the country most affected by the Russia-Ukraine war is Ukraine, which is bald head lice, it is clear that there is no need to argue. The second culprit would be the EU. The European Union may be the dominant group of countries in NATO, but the United States is the true master of the 30-nation military alliance. Militarily, the United States and the EU are Allies, but economically, the United States and the EU are real contenders for the sphere of interests. The United States and the European Union have always played the game of "clinking glasses at the table and kicking feet under the table".
Ukrainian President jersey not even he is a very competent and not sensitive to the President, he can't see it, can not see the ugly face, can't see the United States is the world's most don't speak good faith, the most unreliable countries, impervious to the United States and the European Union is both cooperation and struggle of the complex layers of fog, remains decisively, spare no effort to at the same time into the arms of the United States, NATO and the European Union, To make such a mistake, and to involve the Ukrainian people in the fate of war.
Speaking of this, some of you must be puzzled: The victims of the Russia-Ukraine war must be Ukraine. Besides Ukraine, it has little to do with the world. How can there be the first and second victims? If Ukraine is the first victim, why is the eu the second?
It is an indisputable fact that the first victim of the Russia-Ukraine war is Ukraine. The victimization of the 28-nation BLOC of the European Union is the desired end result manipulated by the United States. As we all know, although the United States can not be called a "fighting nation" in history, the United States has always been the creator and initiator of wars. Some people have done statistics, the United States, in the long history of the world, there was no time for war, only 15 years, the rest of the time, was initiating and inciting war. The United States has always profited from disrupting the international order and starting or inciting other countries to start wars. It was by such means that the United States became the world's hegemon. And then in the name of sending troops to protect, stationed abroad. The purpose of stationing troops abroad: one is to expand their military strength; Second, to monitor and control the host countries to prevent military threats to the United States.
說到底，美國就是世界秩序的一根攪屎棍，他們的目的就是唯恐世界不亂，攪亂世界秩序，轉移自己國內、國際矛盾，然後亂中牟利，亂中取勝。美國鼓動烏克蘭跟俄羅斯死磕，然後再發號施令，讓歐盟制裁俄羅斯，目的就是攪亂世界局勢，讓歐盟捲入俄烏戰爭，讓烏克蘭和歐盟去承擔巨大的戰亂風險，自己隔岸觀火，暗自坐收“鷸蚌相爭”的漁利。這一點，有點頭腦的人，都不難看出其中的隱情。美國指使、挑唆俄烏開戰，俄烏打起來了，美國首當其衝，派重兵攻打俄軍才對。可為什麼美國坐山觀虎鬥，不派一兵一卒？美國不派兵出征烏克蘭，反而一個勁兒支援武器，讓烏克蘭跟俄羅斯死磕，這不明明擺著是讓烏克蘭軍人去送死，讓烏克蘭民眾受難嗎？有本事，你美國怎麼不把美國士兵派到烏克蘭去送死？
歐盟就更有意思了，也跟美國學，不派一兵一卒，只動員、徵集一些個只有戰爭熱情，毫無戰鬥經驗的志願軍敢死隊，象徵性地開進烏克蘭，去當炮灰。他們跟著美國搖旗呐喊制裁俄羅斯，結果怎麼樣？受俄羅斯反制，歐盟能源短缺，能源價格暴漲，國民生產、生活受到了極大的影響。俄羅斯喊話歐盟制裁俄羅斯，不許歐盟進口俄羅斯能源，自己卻悄悄從俄羅斯大量購進石油。據俄羅斯官員透露，美國最近一周的時間裡（4月3日止），購買美國石油數量，猛增到了43%，日進口量達到了10萬桶。你歐盟是傻子還是聾子，不知道美國背後的這一切所作所為嗎？
歐盟知道美國在耍弄他們，為什麼還緊跟美國身後，聽任美國唆使？
眾所周知，美國是世界上頭號超級大國，但是，美國拉著歐盟、G7集團、五眼聯盟……在世界上橫行霸道，歐盟也能跟著美國沾點葷光。美國和歐盟暗地裡爭奪、瓜分世界經濟利益，跟著美國乾了很多欺負世界各國的壞事。美國一倒，歐盟會立即崩潰。所以，“好死不如賴活著”，歐盟即使清楚、明白自己的同盟們受制與美國，也跟美國脫不了乾係，只能違心地在美國的指揮下棒轉悠，吃點美國吃完肉後，剩下的一點骨頭而已。
In the final analysis, the United States is a stirring stick of the world order. Its purpose is to avoid chaos in the world, disrupt the world order, shift their own domestic and international conflicts, and then make profits from chaos and win from chaos. By encouraging Ukraine to engage in a war with Russia, and then ordering the EU to impose sanctions on Russia, the United States aims to destabilize the world situation, draw the EU into a russia-Ukraine war, let Ukraine and the EU bear the huge risk of war, and sit on the sidelines and benefit from the quarrel between the two countries. This point, a little brain, it is not difficult to see the secret. The United States instigated and instigated the war between Russia and Ukraine. When the war broke out, the United States bore the brunt and sent heavy troops to attack the Russian army. But why does the United States sit back and watch and not send a soldier? Instead of sending troops to Ukraine, the United States is only supporting weapons to let Ukraine fight with Russia. Isn't it clear that the United States is letting Ukrainian soldiers die and the Ukrainian people suffer? Come on, why don't you send American soldiers to Ukraine to die?
The European Union is even more interesting. It also follows the example of the United States and does not send a single soldier, but only mobilises and recruits some volunteer death squads with only war enthusiasm and no combat experience to symbolically march into Ukraine as cannon fodder. They follow the United States to shout sanctions against Russia, the result? As a result of Russia's response, the European Union is short of energy and the energy price has skyrocketed, which has greatly affected national production and life. Russia has called for eu sanctions against Russia, barring the EU from importing Russian energy, while quietly buying large quantities of Russian oil. According to Russian officials, U.S. oil purchases jumped 43 percent to 100,000 barrels a day in the week ending April 3. Are you eu stupid or deaf that you don't know what the US is doing behind all this?
The EU knows the US is playing them, so why do they follow the US and let the US instil them?
It is known to all that the United States is the number one superpower in the world, but it pulls the EU, G7, the Five Eyes alliance... As a bully in the world, the EU can get a taste of the US. The United States and the European Union secretly compete for and share the world economic interests, and follow the United States to do a lot of bad things to bully countries around the world. The EU would collapse immediately if the US collapsed. Therefore, "a good death is better than a poor life". Even if the EU knows clearly that its Allies are under the control of the United States, it has something to do with the United States. It can only walk around under the command of the United States against its will and eat a little bone left after the United States has eaten the meat.
歐盟的很多國家，都跟美國是鐵桿，但是，不乏也有智者國家，表面跟美國沆瀣一氣，暗地裡，卻腳踏幾隻船，尋找自己的出路。德國就是一個鮮明的例子，這個國家的領導人很聰明。前任德國總理默克爾，表面順從美國，可是不乏跟美國的死對頭俄羅斯、中國，在經濟和政治上，表現出了很多積極和諧的態度，不斷跟俄羅斯和中國保持著緊密的經濟往來和合作。
針對美國發起的號召世界（主要是歐盟國家），要共同發起對俄羅斯的制裁。2022年3月4日，德國經濟部長哈貝克發表電視講話，他在講話中說：“德國非常依賴來自俄羅斯的能源，我們從俄羅斯進口的55%的煤炭和35%的石油。我們必須擺脫從俄羅斯進口能源的束縛，這也是本屆政府和我個人的目標。”
從這段前後矛盾的講話中不難看出，德國對俄羅斯能源的依賴，已經達到了什麼程度？而“我們必須擺脫從俄羅斯進口能源的束縛”這句話是說給誰聽呢——給美國聽？對了，就是給美國聽的。在世界能源緊張的情況下，你對俄羅斯的能源的需求這麼迫切，你要擺脫——怎麼擺脫，是無能源生產、生活，還是改從別的國家進口？在俄烏戰爭的緊要關頭，世界上所有產油國家，特別是非洲，都開始了限制出口措施，造成了石油短缺，石油價格飛漲的局面。美國到處找油，到處碰壁，才掉過頭來瘋狂地從俄羅斯掠購進口石油，而你德國怎麼擺脫從俄羅斯進口能源（包括石油）的現狀？這句話最後的結果，他們只能告訴美國，我們為德國擺脫從俄羅斯進口能源束縛的行動盡力了，但是——但是沒擺脫掉！
擺脫不掉該怎麼辦，還得從俄羅斯進口能源吧？你依賴俄羅斯能源，還要對俄羅斯進行制裁，魚和熊掌你都要，可能嗎？連傻子都知道，這是不可能的。
說完德國，我們再說說法國。法國和德國一樣，都是歐盟的最主要的成員國。這兩個國家，在歐盟的經濟份額，不說達到一半，也差不了多少。那麼法國到底跟美國鐵到什麼程度呢？都鐵到了差點斷絕關係的地步了。大家還記得去年炒得沸沸揚揚的美國和英國聯手，跟法國搶奪澳大利亞（500億澳元，約2358億元人民幣）艦艇訂單的事情吧？當時的法國總統馬克龍，像瘋了一樣，劍指美英。雖然美國見勢不妙，對法國進行了賠禮道歉，但是吞進肚子裡的骨頭，美國是不會吐出來的。只是一個道歉，就能把美國跟法國結下的巨額利益仇恨一筆勾銷了，這可能嗎？你美國現在是世界霸權國家，法國不敢把你怎麼樣，但是，冤有頭，債有主，等你美國衰敗時，你豢養的狗，遲早會吃盡你身上的肉，把你的拋尸荒郊野外的。美國豢養的走狗日本也是一樣，你鐵到給日本國家投放了原子彈，這個野性十足的民族，到頭來，也會把你美國分尸的。
Many EU countries are firmly aligned with the US. However, there are also some wise countries that are in cahoots with the US on the surface, but secretly seek their own way out by sticking to several boats. Germany is a striking example of a country with smart leaders. The former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was submissive to the United States on the surface, but there was no lack of enemies of the United States, Russia and China. In terms of economy and politics, she showed a lot of positive and harmonious attitudes and kept close economic exchanges and cooperation with Russia and China.
In response to an American call for the world, mainly the European Union, to come together to impose sanctions on Russia. On March 4, 2022, German Economy Minister Habeck gave a televised address in which he said: "Germany is very dependent on energy from Russia, 55% of our coal imports and 35% of our oil imports from Russia. We have to get rid of energy imports from Russia, and that is the goal of my administration and my own."
From this inconsistent speech, it is not difficult to see how dependent Germany has become on Russian energy. And to whom is the message "we must unshackle our energy imports from Russia" addressed - to the United States? That's right, it's for America. Under the situation of energy shortage in the world, your demand for Russian energy is so urgent, you want to get rid of - how to get rid of, no energy production, life, or change to import from other countries? At the height of the Russia-Ukraine war, all the world's oil-producing countries, especially in Africa, imposed export restrictions, causing shortages and soaring oil prices. How do you get rid of Russian energy (including oil) when the United States is looking for oil everywhere and hitting a wall and then turning around and buying imported oil like crazy from Russia? In the end, they had to tell the United States that we had tried our best to free Germany from the shackles of energy imports from Russia, but -- but not yet!
What if we have to import energy from Russia? You depend on Russia for energy and you have sanctions on Russia. You want both. Is that possible? Even a fool can see that this is impossible.
After Germany, let's move on to France. France, along with Germany, is a leading member of the European Union. The two countries' share of the EU economy is not far apart, if not half. So how close is France to the United States? We almost broke up with each other. Do you still remember last year when the United States and The United Kingdom joined forces with France to secure Australia's (50 billion Australian dollars, about 235.8 billion yuan) naval ship order? Emmanuel Macron, then President of France, went mad and pointed his finger at the United States and Britain. Although the United States saw the situation and apologized to France, but swallowed bones, the United States will not spit out. Is it possible that a mere apology could wipe out the huge interest animosity between the United States and France? The United States is now the world's hegemonic power, and France does not dare to do anything to you. However, there is a cause for injustice and debt. When the United States is in decline, your dogs will eat all your flesh and throw your body into the wilderness sooner or later. The same is true of Japan, the dog fed by the US. If you are brave enough to drop atomic bombs on the Japanese nation, this wild nation will, in the end, tear you up as well.
歐盟國家中的主要成員國德、法，都跟美國有結節，有利益上的巨大沖突，但是他們又有一己私利的關係，雖然暫時不能反目成仇，但是心有餘悸的同盟，早晚都會分道揚鑣的，只是等待時間的驗證和美國的進一步衰敗而得到最終驗證。
我們把話題再拉回來，談談俄羅斯現在俄烏衝突上，究竟會何去何從？
大家都知道戰爭不僅會死人，而且會大量燒錢。俄羅斯為什麼不急於吞掉烏克蘭，是吞不掉、啃不動這塊骨頭嗎？當然不是。
如果戰爭使俄羅斯陷入泥潭，俄羅斯才不會傻得去依然堅持繼續維繫這場戰爭呢！烏克蘭越是急於結束戰爭，俄羅斯越是不緊不慢地“小刀薄片慢慢拉”，而且是越“拉”越快活。原因是美國發起的全球性制裁俄羅斯，不經沒讓俄羅斯受制於美國，反而，俄羅斯的反制措施大獲全勝。有資料統計，這次全球性的制裁，俄羅斯的經濟非但沒有崩潰，反而賺得盆滿缽盈，這又是怎麼一回事呢？說到底，這就是美國發起的制裁俄羅斯浪潮，沒有制倒俄羅斯，反而搬起石頭砸了自己的腳。俄羅斯去年GDP總值才1萬多億美元，而僅僅在短短的一個月制裁當中，就賺了3萬億美元，你說俄羅斯還能輕易放棄俄烏戰爭嗎？那麼俄羅斯的打法是：你制裁你的，美國發點小財，留下全球罵名，歐盟被搞得經濟混亂，怨聲載道，俄羅斯大發橫財——這就是俄烏戰爭的現狀和結局。
什麼俄烏談判，有什麼可談的？俄烏談判只是個幌子而已。要想俄烏談判取得成功，必須有兩個先決條件：
第一、烏克蘭徹底被打服，跪地求饒，承認俄羅斯對烏克蘭的一切停戰條件；
第二、美國收起對俄羅斯的制裁令。
大家想想，澤連斯基拼命在喊話歐盟制裁俄羅斯，拼命喊話讓歐盟提供武器支援，拼命喊話世界各國經濟援助烏克蘭。美國不斷煽動烏克蘭堅持戰爭，歐盟還在不斷搞動作。在這種情況下，還談個球的判，停個球的戰？
只要澤連斯基繼續不識時務，不告饒，不低頭，繼續跟隨美歐戰隊，繼續攪局，烏克蘭的戰亂，就一天不會結束。俄羅斯就會一直耗戰不停歇。最後倒霉的，一是烏克蘭，二是歐洲。發小財賺罵名的是美國，發大財的，定是俄羅斯！
美國、歐盟向烏克蘭不斷運送武器，支援烏克蘭，讓烏克蘭跟俄羅斯抗衡。澤連斯基但凡長點腦子，就應該清醒地認識到，他們這是別有用心，是讓烏克蘭國家生靈塗炭，徹底毀於戰火。這不是在幫你，這是在害你，是要害死你！打不過俄羅斯是肯定的。打不過不要硬撐，繳械求和，答應俄羅斯停戰要求，才是唯一出路！
俄烏戰爭曠日不絕，俄羅斯是在溫水煮蛤蟆，不讓你死，也讓你活不成！
Germany, France, the main member in the eu countries have nodules with the United States, there are vast conflict of interests, but they have selfish interests relations, although temporarily not to foes, but by alliance, will break in the morning and evening, just waiting for the time of validation and the further decline of the United States and get the final proof.
Let's get back to Russia and talk about what's going on in the russia-Ukraine conflict?
Everyone knows that war not only kills people, but also costs a lot of money. Why is Russia not in a hurry to swallow up Ukraine, but unable to swallow or gnaw the bone? Of course not.
If the war drags Russia into a quagmire, Russia is not stupid enough to keep the war going. The more Anxious Ukraine is to end the war, the more leisurely Russia is pulling, and the happier it is. The reason is that the GLOBAL sanctions on Russia initiated by the United States did not make Russia subject to the United States, but Russia's countermeasures won the day. There are statistics, the global sanctions, the Russian economy did not collapse, but made a lot of money, how is this? In the final analysis, this is the wave of sanctions initiated by the US against Russia. Instead of subduing Russia, it has shot itself in the foot. Russia's GDP last year was just over $1 trillion, but in just one month of sanctions, Russia earned $3 trillion. Do you think Russia can easily give up the war with Ukraine? So the Russian approach is: you sanction yours, the US makes a small fortune, leaving a global reputation, the EU gets economic chaos, complaints are widespread, and Russia makes a big fortune -- that's the status quo and outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war.
What russia-Ukraine talks? What's there to talk about? The russia-Ukraine talks are just a cover. For the Russia-Ukraine talks to succeed, there must be two prerequisites:
First, Ukraine was completely beaten and begged for mercy, recognizing all the ceasefire conditions of Russia against Ukraine;
Second, the United States withdrew its sanctions against Russia.
If you think about it, Zelensky is desperately calling for eu sanctions against Russia, desperately calling for THE EU to provide arms, desperately calling for the world's economic aid to Ukraine. America keeps goading Ukraine into war, and the EU keeps doing it. In this case, also talk about a ball call, stop the game?
As long as Zelensky continues to ignore the situation, not to apologize, not to bow, continue to follow the United States and Europe, continue to stir up, the war in Ukraine, will not end. Russia will never stop fighting. Last but not least, Ukraine and Europe. It's the US that makes the small fortune, it's Russia that makes the big fortune!
The United States and the European Union have been sending arms to Ukraine to help it compete with Russia. If Zelensky had any sense, he would have realized that they had ulterior motives and were trying to ruin the Ukrainian state. This isn't helping you! This is hurting you! This is killing you! Not beating Russia is for sure. But don't fight, disarm and Sue for peace, agree to the Russian truce request, is the only way out!
The Russia-Ukraine war goes on and on. Russia is cooking a toad in warm water. It won't let you die, and it won't let you live!
責任編輯 蘇敏
Managing editor Su Min
