俄乌战争要打多久，乌克兰是否会被北约接纳，俄乌战争谁是赢家?
How long will the war last? Will Ukraine be accepted into NATO? Who will win the war?
凤凰新闻社国际问题评论员 田长友
Tian Changyou, international affairs commentator, Phoenix News Agency
凤凰新闻社讯
Phoenix News Service
作者 田长友
俄乌战争究竟要打多久，这是个很难准确回答的问题。这个问题别说是局外人，就是普京，也做不出确切的回答。因为这场战争存在很多不确定的变数。但是不管变数如何复杂，达不到普京的目的，这场战争就不会停歇。虽然俄罗斯出现了反对普京俄乌战争的套路，想要加大对乌战争的力度，速战速决。但普京必经是一国之主，怎么打，打多久，必须由他来决定。
How long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last is a difficult question to answer. It is a question that Mr Putin, let alone an outsider, has no definitive answer to. Because there are so many uncertainties in this war. But the war will not stop until Mr Putin's goals are achieved, no matter how complex the variables. Although Russia appeared to oppose Putin's russia-Ukraine war routine, want to increase the intensity of the war against Ukraine, a quick victory. But Mr Putin must be the king of the country, and he must decide how and for how long.
普京对乌战争，给出了慢慢打的理论。环球网4月12日报道，普京在记者招待会上提出：“要以最低的损失，达到战争的目的。”从此不难看出，这才是俄罗斯用“温水煮蛤蟆”的战术，进攻乌克兰的真正目的。
Putin's theory of the Ukraine war is to fight slowly. Huanqiu.net reported on April 12, Putin said at a press conference: "To achieve the goal of war with the lowest loss." It is not hard to see that this is the real purpose of Russia's tactics of "boiling toads in warm water" to attack Ukraine.
他们沉着稳定，边打边看，宜战宜停，一边是对乌克兰进行实际控制，一边是紧盯北约的动向。如果俄罗斯集中力量进攻乌克兰，有可能会造成顾此失彼的状态，难以应对北约突发的军事行动。慢慢打，是在教训乌克兰的同时，积聚力量提防和对付北约对俄罗斯的全面突袭。不过，普京向前方部队的“不管欧洲任何国家出兵援助乌克兰，不用请示，可以直接进行核打击”的命令，也是阻止欧盟、北约不敢轻易出兵乌克兰的一个法宝。
They are poised to watch and fight, to exercise physical control over Ukraine and to keep an eye on NATO. If Russia focuses on attacking Ukraine, it will be difficult to respond to NATO's unexpected military action. To fight slowly is to teach Ukraine a lesson while gathering strength to guard against and counter a full-scale NATO assault on Russia. However, Putin's order to the front troops to "send troops to Ukraine regardless of any European country, without asking for permission, can directly carry out nuclear strikes" is also a magic weapon to prevent the European Union and NATO from sending troops to Ukraine.
究竟俄乌战争能打多久，要看乌克兰能坚持多久。美欧支援乌克兰武器，提供资金，是让乌克兰跟俄罗斯长期耗下去，不想让乌克兰因武器短缺，经济不支而停息战斗。而俄罗斯进行鏖战的原因，是目前战争还没有达到俄罗斯的目的。世人从俄乌战争中不难看出，俄罗斯攻打乌克兰的目的，无非有如下原因：一是打残背叛俄罗斯，投入以美国为首的北约怀抱的乌克兰；二是给美欧一点颜色看看。不把乌克兰打服，俄罗斯是不会轻易罢手的。如果在没有任何结果的情况下，俄罗斯撤兵，俄乌停战，乌克兰不仅会加剧加入北约进程，而且乌克兰也会因此而更加嚣张。这样，俄罗斯就会丢尽脸面，反倒加剧以美国为首的北约的疯狂。
How long the war between Russia and Ukraine can last depends on how long Ukraine can hold out. By supporting Ukraine with weapons and providing funds, the US and Europe are trying to keep Ukraine and Russia at war for a long time. They do not want Ukraine to stop fighting due to a shortage of weapons and economic stagnation. The reason why Russia is fighting hard is that the war has not yet achieved its objectives. It is not difficult to see from the Russia-Ukraine war that the purpose of Russia's attack on Ukraine is nothing more than the following reasons: One is to destroy Ukraine, which betrayed Russia and threw itself into the arms of NATO led by the United States; Second, we need to give the US and Europe a lesson. Russia will not stop until Ukraine is defeated. If, in the absence of any outcome, Russia withdraws and Ukraine withdraws, it will not only intensify the process of joining NATO, but also embolden Ukraine. That would be humiliating for Russia and would only fuel the madness of THE US-led NATO alliance.
至于北约会不会吸纳乌克兰，尚得不到认证。因为在北约眼里，乌克兰只不过是他们的玩偶而已，是他们对抗俄罗斯的一个马前卒，根本没有真心面对乌克兰是否加入北约。乌克兰加入北约与否，对北约来说，无关紧要。乌克兰不加入北约，反倒是北约和美国可以用俄乌之间的矛盾，得到两个好处。第一个好处是让乌克兰不死不活，让其充当美国和北约的丧家犬，才能让其听任美国和北约的摆布。另一个好处是，在限制乌克兰发展的同时，美欧利用俄乌矛盾，遏制俄罗斯的军事和经济发展。
There is no confirmation that NATO will take Ukraine in. In NATO's eyes, Ukraine is just a puppet, a pawn in the fight against Russia, and there is no real face on whether Ukraine will join NATO. Whether Ukraine joins NATO or not is of little consequence to the alliance. Instead of Ukraine joining NATO, NATO and the United States can use the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to gain two advantages. The first benefit would be to keep Ukraine at the mercy of the US and NATO by keeping it alive as a dead dog. Another advantage is that, while restricting Ukraine's development, the US and Europe take advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to curb Russia's military and economic development.
如果乌克兰加入北约，乌克兰的国际地位，就会与北约成员国平齐，美国和北约单方面遏制乌克兰的约束力，就会削弱。所以，美国主导的北约组织，是不急于吸收乌克兰加入北约的。
If Ukraine joins NATO, its international status will be on a par with that of NATO members, and the binding force of the United States and NATO to contain Ukraine unilaterally will be weakened. Therefore, the US-led NATO is in no hurry to absorb Ukraine into NATO.
乌克兰内部拥美派高官，是在逐渐将乌克兰推向死亡的边缘。欧美不出兵的原因，不是不想出兵，而是不敢轻易出兵。他们是不想因出兵而引发第三次世界大战，引发核战。欧美也不是不想发动第三次世界大战，是因为中、俄军力强大，发动第三次世界大战的后果难以料定，弄不好，会引火烧身，自取灭亡。
Senior pro-American officials in Ukraine are gradually driving the country to the brink of death. The reason why Europe and America do not send troops is not that they do not want to send troops, but that they do not dare to send troops easily. They don't want to trigger world War III and nuclear war by sending troops. It is not that Europe and the United States do not want to launch a third World war, because China and Russia are powerful military, the consequences of launching a third world war is hard to predict, if not, will be burned, and self-destruction.
美国的盟友，从最初的几个乌合之众国家，变成了美国主导的北约30个成员国。北约组织的壮大，对于世界来说，无疑是危害全球安定的信号。
America's Allies, from a ragtag collection of nations, became the 30 members of the US-dominated NATO alliance. NATO's expansion is a signal to the world that global stability is at risk.
近期，瑞典和芬兰，也要求加入北约，这不能不说是北约对世界和平和稳定，注入了新的不安定因素。瑞典向来以不结盟与中立国著称，瑞典和芬兰突然宣布申请加入北约，这说明了什么？其实事情很简单，这两国和俄罗斯的关系长期不睦是基础，瑞典、芬兰和俄罗斯直接接壤并在历史上，也因为领土问题发生过战争，瑞典和芬兰加入北约，一是本身西方成员国的身份，加入北约，是理所当然之事；二是趁火打劫，给俄罗斯上眼药。
Recently, Sweden and Finland also asked to join NATO, which cannot but say that NATO has injected new destabilizing factors to world peace and stability. Sweden has long been known as a non-aligned and neutral country. What does it say about Sweden and Finland's sudden announcement that they want to join NATO? In fact, it is very simple, the two countries and Russia's long-term disharmony is the foundation, Sweden, Finland and Russia directly border on and in history, also because of the territorial issue of the war, Sweden and Finland to join NATO, one is its own western membership, joining NATO, is a matter of course; The other is to take advantage of the situation and give Russia the eye medicine.
美国及其北约组织的狂妄和不断扩大，引起了世界的注意与警觉。很多中小国家敢怒不敢言，有的只好忍气吞声，任其宰割。但是就有不听邪的国家敢发声，这就是印度。印度总理莫迪此时不仅不听从美国的指挥，拒绝制裁俄罗斯，而且还认识到了北约存在的潜在威胁，说北约应该解散。
The arrogance and continuous expansion of the United States and ITS NATO organization have attracted the attention and vigilance of the world. Many small and medium-sized countries dare not speak up, and some have to swallow their anger and be slaughtered. But there is a country that does not listen to evil and speaks out, and that is India. At this time, Indian Prime Minister Modi not only disobeyed the command of the United States and refused to sanction Russia, but also recognized the potential threat of NATO and said that NATO should be dissolved.
其实印度也不是省油的灯，印度深知美国是个利己主义的国家，是个出尔反尔的国家，但是印度为了跟中国对抗，不得紧抱美国的大腿。但这次顶撞美国，不听美国的话，主要是：一不想得罪俄罗斯，二想借俄乌冲突发财，三看透了北约组织存在，对世界和平，存在着潜伏的威胁。
In fact, India is not an easy lamp. It knows that the United States is a country of egoism and flip-iness, but India should not hug the thigh of the United States in order to confront China. But this time contradict the United States, do not listen to the United States, the main reason is: one do not want to offend Russia, two want to get rich by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, three see through the existence of NATO, to world peace, there is a latent threat.
在俄乌冲突关键时期，印度和加紧了俄罗斯间的国际贸易，大量从俄罗斯进口能源。印度从俄罗斯进口能源的主要动因，不是为了本国的能源需求，而且在欧洲听从美国指挥，缩减对俄能源贸易，在欧洲出现能源短缺之际，把从俄罗斯低价进口的能源，高价卖给欧洲，汲取极大利润。印度的这一招数，不是自己创造的，他们是从美国那里学来的。
During the critical period of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India stepped up international trade with Russia, importing a large amount of energy from Russia. The main motivation for India to import energy from Russia is not for its own energy needs, and when Europe is following the direction of the United States, it reduces energy trade with Russia, and when Europe is in energy shortage, it sells energy from Russia at a low price to Europe at a high price, reaping huge profits. India did not invent this move, they learned it from US.
美国号召全球制裁俄罗斯，欧盟紧跟，但是美国自己却大量从俄罗斯进口能源，高价卖给欧盟。难道欧盟是傻瓜，不知道吗？
The US calls for global sanctions against Russia and the EU follows, but the US itself imports a lot of energy from Russia and sells it to the EU at a high price. Is the EU stupid not to know?
美国是世界第一强国，欧盟在军事上，充当美国的傀儡，不得不紧跟美国旗后，听任美国这根“搅屎棍”的任意搅动。美国和其盟友无时无刻不想瓜分世界。在美国占据世界主导地位后，大口吃肉的同时，其盟友跟着吃块美国啃剩下的骨头，这已成为了二战后的惯例。所以美国一声令下，盟友紧跟其后。
The United States is the world's largest power, the European Union in military, as a puppet of the United States, had to follow the Flag of the United States, the "stirring stick" of the United States at will. The US and its Allies want to carve up the world all the time. It has become a post-World War II ritual for the United States to gorge itself on meat while its Allies follow suit with a bone that the United States has gnawed. So when the US gives the order, its Allies follow.
美国是虽然是好战国家，是靠战争发财的国家，欧盟、五眼联盟又是美国的帮凶，但是美国和其帮凶们却永远也忘不了对朝、对越战争中，中国军队给他们造成重创的教训。他们欺负若小国家，比如阿富汗、利比亚、伊拉克、叙利亚……这些既没有多少实力，背后又没有靠山的敢于跟美国叫板碰硬的出头鸟、小国家，他们说打就打。可是他们在军事比较强硬并且在国际上有一定影响的伊朗、巴基斯坦、以色列、土耳其、朝鲜等国面前，就显得无计可施，萎缩忍耐。他们更不敢轻易直接用军事触碰中俄。
Although the United States is a warmongering country and makes money from war, and the European Union and the Five Eyes Alliance are its accomplices, the United States and its accomplices will never forget the lessons that the Chinese army inflicted heavy losses on them in the wars against Korea and Vietnam. They bully small countries like Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria... These small countries with little strength and no backer dare to challenge the United States, they will fight at their word. But they have no idea what to do with Iran, Pakistan, Israel, Turkey, North Korea and other countries that are militarily strong and have some influence in the world. They dare not touch China and Russia directly with military force.
那么俄乌战争的最大赢家又是谁呢？
So who was the biggest winner of the Russia-Ukraine war?
俄乌战争最失败的国家是乌克兰。乌克兰因战争死亡大量军人和部分平民，军事设施遭重创，大量建筑被毁，经济停滞。欧盟蒙受了能源危机、经济增长受限的巨大损失。
The biggest loser in the Russia-Ukraine war was Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has killed a large number of soldiers and some civilians, severely damaged military facilities, destroyed a large number of buildings and brought the economy to a standstill. The EU has suffered greatly from the energy crisis and limited economic growth.
美国却因俄乌战争大发横财，他们借制裁的名义，冻结扣押俄罗斯在美的巨额资金和财产，低价进口俄罗斯能源，高价卖给欧洲。印度也趁火打劫，赚得钵满盆盈。
However, the United States made a fortune due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the name of sanctions, they froze and seized a huge amount of Russian funds and property in the United States, imported Russian energy at a low price and sold it to Europe at a high price. India is also cashing in.
当然，在这场轰轰烈烈的俄乌冲突当中，俄罗斯在反制裁措施当中，也大发其横财。据资料记载，几个月当中，就狂赚3万亿，超过俄罗斯国民经济总值的两倍。
Of course, in the midst of this spectacular conflict with Ukraine, Russia has also made a windfall from the anti-sanctions measures. According to records, in a few months, it raked in $3 trillion, more than twice the gross national economy of Russia.
责任编辑 苏敏
Managing editor Su Min
